The Canadian National Newspaper: The Cold Peace: Russia wants the Yankees out of its “backyard”

Russia regained its place amongst the world’s top newsmakers after the August War with Georgia over South Ossetia. However, this comeback, like any serious development on this level, was longer in the making than the headlines may lead to believe. A month or two doesn’t cut it; the groundwork for the “Cold Peace”, as the current resurgence of Cold War is sometimes dubbed, was laid over a period of several years, taking place largely in the post-Communist part of the world.

It all boils down to power vacuum left by the collapse of USSR. The fall of Soviet empire distorted all the power balance in the territories formerly dominated by Russia. The Eastern European countries – members of the dissolved Warsaw pact that were stuck between the Western Europe and Russia throughout their whole history – gladly gravitated towards the capitalist dream, being swallowed, though not digested, by the EU in 2004. The post-Soviet republics were left to drift free and directionless, with only the impotent CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), which most of them joined, maintaining an illusion of unity and continuity.

Enter USA. The Clinton people paid attention to the post-Communist world, too, but it was George W. Bush administration that really charged in head-on with the export of democracy. A surge of “color revolutions” in mid-2000's resulted in Georgia becoming a satellite of the U.S., and half Ukraine following suit (the other half is vehemently pro-Russian). The American forces relied on bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan for two of their Middle East wars, although Uzbekistan ruined the alliance in 2005 by drowning in blood its own attempt at a color revolution in Andijan. In 2007 the US began to advance their missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic – it’s said to be anti-Iranian, but, curiously, covers against a possible nuclear danger from Russia (unimaginable as it may be) as well.

Moscow took more than a decade to realize the things have changed, but finally the Russian elite began to retaliate. The turning point was the so-called “Munich speech” delivered by Vladimir Putin in February 2007, which happened to be an aggressive rant against the U.S. global dominance, with accusations that the White House ignores international law, which leads to global insecurity and a renewed arms race – essentially a threat of a new Cold War. The idea that the American imperialists, keen on being the undisputed king of the hill (i.e. globe), work hard to encircle Russia with a belt of hostile states soon spread like wildfire, leaving all alternative opinions in Russia scorched and silenced.

The main offender was the Russian TV. The state-run federal channels, especially the two mastodons known simply as “The First” and “The Second”, are the sole source of information, entertainment and opinions in most parts of the country, and they allow no alternative to governmental point of view. The rest of the media played along, adopting a system of velvet self-censorship, and opposition was locked in an information ghetto, away from the majority of the voters. The fast and tough suppression of several independent TV channels that happened during the first years of Putin’s reign certainly helped to install this system, but there’s no need to demonize the transmitter: the receiving end, i.e. the public, was very much receptive to the ideas it was served. Despite the inflow of petrodollars, many internal problems still persist and grow in Russia, but after a decade of turmoil the society is too weary to tackle complex tasks, and finding a scapegoat turned out to be the most comfortable solution.

Now the anti-US stance has set in. The conspiracy against Russia (and, to a lesser extent, everyone else) is accepted to be a pivotal driving force behind the American policy, the current political frontline running across Georgia and the missile defense system to be placed in Poland and Czech Republic. The dislike applies to the entire Western world, but the USA is the main target; the European Union, which is softer and more careful (being dependent on Russian oil and gas), is antagonized less. Poland and Bulgaria joining the EU is not viewed as an offence; the possibility of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO, despite being a rather ceremonial measure, makes the Russian bureaucracy and populace fume with rage. No wonder that, at present, all dialogue is frozen.

There’s little point in playing the “good or bad” game here: if anything, Russia and USA share the blame. The Americans did, indeed, waste no opportunity to invade the power vacuum in the post-Soviet world, and the Russians were all too keen to blame their own failures on someone else. The sensible thing to do now that the crisis became apparent would be for Russia to realize that the former USSR countries are not its backyard anymore, and need to be treated as partners, not vassals. The U.S. have got to realize, on their part, that geographical proximity and centuries-old relations are not to be ignored even in the 21st century. If they want play a constructive part in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and the post-Soviet Central Asia, they need something more substantial than simple diplomatic chutzpah and juicy support programs, which basically amount to state-level bribes.

Whether anyone will realize it soon remains doubtful. Much depends on the change of American leadership – McCain may see it fit to press harder against his old enemies from KGB (i.e. Putin and his secret-service-bred men), eliciting more nervous and angry responses from Moscow. Obama gave reasons to expect him to opt for more goodwill and more elaborate policies, but even he, if elected, will face a hard task, because the anti-US hardline is already an important part of Russian policy, both foreign and internal. Overcoming the pre-set belief that those Yankee imperialists are up to no good will take a lot of honest goodwill, indeed.

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