This Wednesday night at the TD Garden, the Washington Capitals and the Boston Bruins will face-off against each other one last time for the right to move into the Eastern Conference semifinals. This Game 7 clash is slated for 4:30 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on the NBC Sports Network.

Series Outlook-Washington

Washington was hoping it would not come to a Game 7 scenario after taking a 3-2 series lead with a thrilling 4-3 victory in Game 5 as a 170 road underdog. It was its second win on the road in this series after posting a 2-1 overtime victory in Game 2 as a 167 road dog. The Capitals have actually been underdogs in all seven games of this series and prohibitive ones on the road.

The key to pulling off the series upset as an underdog will fall squarely on the shoulders of the Capitals four main players so far. Offensively, the trio of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin has accounted for 12 points and two game winning goals, while little-used goalie Braden Holtby has been able to fill some pretty big shoes. Injuries sidelined Washington’s Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth, but Holtby has picked up the slack with a goals-against-average of 2.18 and a .935 save percentage through the first six games. This has been an amazing performance considering he started just six games in the regular season for the Capitals.

Series Outlook- Boston

Given the fact that each of the first six games has been decided by one goal, it is safe to say that the defending champs are already battle-tested for this year’s run at a title. The concern has to be its performance at home, where Boston went 24-14-3 this season. It gave away home ice with a 2-1 loss in overtime in Game 2 as a 182 favorite and fell again at home in Game 5 as a 185 favorite.

If the Bruins are going to successfully defend home ice in Game 7, they will need a better effort from their All-Star goalie Tim Thomas. He has been adequate so far with a 2.18 GAA and a .922 save percentage, but the reason this team won the Stanley Cup last season was his ability to completely shut the opposing team down. Boston has outshot the Capitals 216 to 180, yet the total goals scored remains even at 14.

Series Betting Trends

Washington is 6-2 in its last eight games as a road underdog with NHL odds as high as +151 to +200. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six games as an underdog on the road.

Boston is 1-4 in its last five games playing on two day’s rest and 7-17 in its last 24 games following a win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its last five playoff games as a favorite of -151 to -200.

Head-to-head, the road team has now won four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in 23 of the last 33 games between the two. The Capitals are 4-1 in their last five games on the road against the Bruins, and the total has stayed UNDER seven of the last nine meetings in Boston.

Prediction

Conventional wisdom tells us always to stick with the home team in a Game 7, but this has not been a conventional series. The Capitals know they can win on the road and have no problem winning tight games. Stick with Washington as your NHL pick to pull off the stunning upset in a game that stays UNDER the five-goal total.

The Free NHL Pick: Washington 2     Boston 1.