Falling Loonie means profits for Canadian banks: CIBC








There’s a silver lining in the rapid decline of the Canadian dollar, at least for some of the country’s biggest banks and insurance companies.

Rob Sedran, an analyst at CIBC World Markets, sent a report to clients Friday noting the benefits of the Loonie’s drop for Canadian banks that earn some of their profits in U.S. dollars.

“Canadians that might like to warm up in this frigid winter by heading south are seeing their purchasing power erode,” the analyst wrote, “but it also means that Canadian bank and lifeco shareholders can at the very least turn up the thermostat with the extra dollars they will be earning on translation of U.S. dollar-denominated earnings.”

Among the banks, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal carry the most direct U.S. dollar exposure, Mr. Sedran wrote, cautioning that he is basing his analysis on estimates that may not factor in hedging by the banks. The analyst suggested that Bank of Nova Scotia also carries “significant” exposure to U.S. dollar earnings because of its international business. Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce are also poised to profit from their U.S. dollar exposure, though to a lesser extent.

Insurers Manulife Financial and Sun Life are also heavily exposed to movements in the U.S. Dollar, Mr. Sedran said in his report.

The analyst noted one negative in the forecast: the effect of the low Canadian dollar on the calculation of higher capital ratios demanded by new post-crisis standards.

“That is a tough one to quantify, but with all companies carrying strong balance sheets, the impact should be manageable,” Mr. Sedran wrote.


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