Ukraine: Will there be a US-Russia war over Crimea?






 

This question looks funny because such a thing would not happen now or in the near future. Confrontation and conflicts are common between the two strong foes of Cold War but expecting them to wage a war either in Russia or USA amounts to just over simplification of the issue.


Confrontations, war threats, invasions, regional tensions and escalation of tensions are nothing new, they are routine in international politics based on lies and war tragedies. .
USA and Russia share authoritarian values in their own respective manners. Ukrainians are just pawns in the West’s geopolitical games anyway. Russia would gain much from the conflict since occupiers have upper hand in such conflicts.


Unlike in Kuwait case when NATO quickly invaded Iraq when it invaded Kuwait to control its vast energy resources, NATO would not dare invade Russia in anger for fear of retaliation from the powerful Russian military.


NATO attacked Kuwait because the Pentagon-CIA duo wanted to control Kuwaiti oil as part of their Mideast oil policy and they found Iraqi invasion blocking their oil interests. But in Ukraine case there is no such economic advantage for USA in attacking Russia, but on the contrary, they would lose economic advantages, rather they have to pay for destructions. .


Above all, Washington and Moscow share certain vital secrets about world wars, cold war, Sept-11 hoax, global terror attacks, among other such explosive issue, and in case of any real war conflict, certain Moscow would reveal all these secrets wide open and expose US “democratic” designs.


That will help the shivering humanity to comprehend what exactly has been happening in the world.


Neither USA nor Russia wants that to happen. Not even the EU now seeking to control the world as partners of USA want it!


II


While Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russian forces have secured control over Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and Moscow is ready to “use all means” to protect Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine has accused Russia of a massive military buildup near Ukraine’s border that raises the threat of an invasion.


Andrei Parubiy, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Wednesday’s briefing in Kiev that Russia has deployed more than 80,000 troops close to the border, creating the “threat of a full-scale invasion from various directions.” In Moscow, however, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov denied a military buildup on the Russia-Ukraine border.


Following Russia’s dispatch of troops to Ukraine, US President Barack Obama said last week that “if this violation of international law continues, the resolve of the USA and NATO allies and the international community will remain firm.” By invading Crimea and threatening to annex it, Obama said, Moscow has violated the basic principle of the inviolability of borders. This has both CIS states and NATO allies concerned about future Russian aggression.


The USA has already sent additional forces, including fighter jets, to Eastern Europe in response to Ukraine crisis, and confirmed it would “respond” if mutual defence obligations with NATO members in Europe require it to intervene.


The majority of Americans oppose any substantial U.S. involvement in the Ukrainian crisis. A poll conducted by the Pew Research Center in USA on March 6-9, over 56 percent of Americans think their country should “not get too involved” in the situation, while only about half want the USA to take a “firm stand” against Russian actions. A separate poll, conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News, shows the U.S. public look more favorably on economic sanctions against Russia, however. Fifty-six percent of those polled said they supported coordinated U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, while another 31 percent opposed them, the results released Tuesday showed.
West feels that the Kremlin has already decided to annex Crimea. Throughout the past two decades, Russia has always recognized Ukraine as a sovereign independent state within its current borders. This recognition is codified in many treaties. Russia has trampled on all of those treaties, agreements and guarantees under the false pretext of protecting Russian-speakers in Crimea from “persecution.”


Russia’s main contention is majority of people in Crimea are Russians and Russian speaking. Earlier, wanting Belorussia to be a part of Russia, Putin reminded Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko that 70 percent of Belarussians speak Russian in addition to their native language, and that Belarus is critically dependent on annual financial assistance from Moscow. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev also says that 4 million of his country’s 17 million citizens are ethnic Russians and that Moscow might express a sudden desire to “protect” them as well.


III


Former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev who belonged to Ukraine handed Crimea over to Ukraine in 1954. Now in 2014 Putin seeks to annex it back to make a part of Russia.
Russians, who have been psychologically prepared to think only in terms of “great Russia” and its super power status have welcomed Putin’s expansionism in former Soviet territory. They feel some pride has been retrieved by the Kremlin by its annexation move. The Russian authorities seem bent on buttressing their position by fanning the flames of chauvinism, patriotism and nationalist fervor with such slogans as “Russia will not surrender its own!”


Western hemisphere feels by taking over Crimea, Moscow has destroyed all faith in Russia as a guarantor of any other state’s sovereignty or territorial integrity. Once Russia officially annexes Crimea, the West will inevitably apply more serious sanctions against Moscow.


Euro-US is serious about sanctions as the only mode of punishment for Russian move in Ukraine. Not only the Western sanctions will seriously compromise Russia’s international status and prestige, they will place Russia on par with rogue states such as Iran, North Korea, Belarus and Syria.


Russian economy heavily depends on exports, especially in energy and arms. Following a year that saw only 1.4 percent growth in gross domestic product, the Russian economy might contract this year. Russian public companies are quickly losing value on the stock market, capital flight is growing, and investment is expected to decline. The government will also face additional expenses in military outlays and for annexing and supporting Crimea. But that is not the problem for the Kremlin.


The Kremlin efforts of convincing Russia’s oligarchs and corrupt officials to bring their money back into the country and begin investing it in the economy would fail. The far greater risks and uncertainty caused by Moscow’s actions will only accelerate capital flight and business owners’ efforts to seek more reliable financial safe havens in the West.


The USA imposed sanctions against the Soviet Union after its invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, leading eventually to the collapse of the mighty Soviet state and the system.


Observation


Russians are already feeling economic pain as the ruble continues to decline in value.


Previously a guarantor of stability, Putin has suddenly become the main source of political, economic and social risk not only for Russia, but for the world. Even the dryheads in Washington now admit that the Crimea question is already decided. Tomorrow’s referendum is a formality, purely symbolic gesture since the people of Crimea have already spoken and no threats or sanctions will change this fait accompli.


The chances of quickly and painlessly resolving the Ukrainian crisis are slim. Even if the crisis ends with a peaceful resolution, the recent events in the Ukrainian crisis will have long-term negative consequences for Russia, Europe and the world.


The Washington war machine and the media prefer to forget that after 9/11 hoax, seemingly launched as per the CIA-Mossad plan for regime changes in Mideast starting with invasion of Islamizing Afghanistan, Russian Putin, looking for opportunity come closer to White House, readily offered his country’s full support to the USA, and that support was instrumental in killing millions of Muslims in the name of defeating the Taliban. Russia consequently saved countless US soldiers during the Afghan War.


At the time, almost all U.S. politicians praised Putin and treated him like a hero, but when he suggested building on this cooperation by forming a political, economic and military alliance with the West, he was unceremoniously rebuffed.


Washington is aware that Russia was instrumental in getting the Central Muslim nations and even India helping the NATO rouges in Afghanistan and with Moscow’s assistance NATO would not have achieved the “victory”. .


Putin-bashing and US threats of sanctions would likely hurt the West more than Russia. Moreover, this may eventually lead to an escalation of tensions on par with the Cuban missile crisis, or even World War III.


Without Russia’s help, nothing can be done about Crimea. .Washington might opt for talks with both Russia and EU and simultaneously engineer uprising inside Russia just like the ones in Mideast.


Even if the crisis ends with a peaceful resolution, the recent events in the Ukrainian crisis will have long-term negative consequences for Russia, Europe and the world.


Meanwhile, Ukraine, using the Russo-US confrontation, seeks extra benefits from USA and EU. Kiev knows too well Moscow would not now offer any concessions. The NATO is being pressured by Ukraine to undertake security measures for the entire region.


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