An uneasy truce has been holding - somewhat - since September 5th.  The pro-Russian rebels hold most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are the industrial heartland of the Ukraine. Russia has officially annexed the big Crimean peninsula, with its famous Black Sea resorts, and will likely hold these areas for the foreseeable future.  Alarmists say that America has failed again, and lost ground again to Russia.  The opposite is true.
   
The red areas on the map show areas of Ukraine where Russian is the predominant language.  These areas are the only areas held by pro-Russian forces - the pink and blue are held by the Ukraine government.  Note that there is no land route for Russians to get from the right side of the map (Russia) to Crimea.  There is a ferry (but no bridge) across the Kerch Strait to connect to Russia.

If the red areas remain under Russian control, they are in serious economic trouble.  The city of Mariupol, on the bottom edge of the upper red area, remains in government hands.  Mariupol is the steel capital of the region.  The industrial heartland around Donetsk (the Donbas) relies on steel from Mariupol.  Water and natural gas for the Crimea must come through the Ukraine.  These areas cannot exist for long without close economic ties with the rest of Ukraine.

Who won or lost in the last few months?  Start with the situation in January 2014.  All of the Ukraine was under heavy Russian influence, and Russia had their man as President of the Ukraine.  Now, they have only the red areas of this map, and those areas cannot survive without links to the Ukraine.  Clearly, the Russians have lost a vast area of land, and the Ukraine, which was once their puppet, is now an enemy.

The Ukraine needs these areas, too.  “A man can lose a leg and survive with difficulty, but the leg cannot survive without the man”.  The steel production of Mariupol needs its primary market of the Donbas, but it has a secondary market selling steel to Europe.  The primary industry of Crimea is the Russian Navy at the port of Sevastopol, but its second industry is tourism - and most of its tourists normally come from the Ukraine, Europe, and then Russia.  Ukraine and European tourists are boycotting the Crimean resorts, and the Russians have to detour and take a ferry across the Kerch Strait at the base of the Sea of Azov - so tourism in Crimea is having a very bad year.

“Russia with Ukraine is a world power; Russia without Ukraine is a third world power”.  Russia, and its areas of the Donbas and Crimea, badly need to restore economic ties with the rest of Ukraine.  The Ukraine is hurting, but is getting some help from the West.  The man can live without the leg, but the leg will die without the man.  

Hard negotiations lie ahead, but Ukraine, the breakaway areas, and Russia badly need each other.  Peace will come, but it will take a long time.  A long, cold winter lies ahead.

About the Author:

Bruce Gordon is a retired Air Force fighter pilot with experience in Korea, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia.  He is widely traveled, gives lectures on military history, and advises a Fortune 100 company on international events.  His book, The Spirit of Attack - Fighter Pilot Stories is available on Amazon.com.